Good morning, and welcome to our rolling protection of the world economic system, the monetary markets, the eurozone and enterprise.
The UK provide chain scarcity continues to grip the economic system, with consumer-facing corporations develop extra nervous in regards to the financial outlook as they battle to search out employees… and automotive manufacturing slumps.
Companies akin to bars, eating places and journey corporations turned pessimistic in regards to the financial outlook in August, in response to a brand new survey from the CBI this morning. It blames a scarcity of employees to fill jobs, including to rising prices and operational difficulties following the lockdown.
Optimism in regards to the normal enterprise scenario amongst shopper service companies tumbled to minus 17% this month, down from a constructive studying of 47% in Could.
Shopper providers companies additionally reported report considerations about labour shortages — and after the strongest progress since February 2018, expectations for the following quarter are “fairly bleak”, the survey says.
These consumer-focused companies additionally anticipate earnings to say no subsequent quarter, and - regardless of these labour shortages - many are anticipating slicing headcount subsequent quarter.
The CBI additionally identifies a break up inside the providers economic system. Enterprise {and professional} providers companies reporting sturdy volumes progress, and anticipate this to proceed for the three months.
Charlotte Dendy, CBI Principal Economist, says:
“It’s clear that the service sector has carried out effectively over the three months to August, revealing sturdy volumes and earnings progress in our newest survey because the economic system reopened over the summer season. Nevertheless, the outlook between sub-sectors is about to diverge over the quarter forward, with a deterioration in prospects anticipated in shopper providers.
“Companies in sectors akin to accommodations, eating places and journey, don’t anticipate this energy to persist into the following quarter, reflecting the stress that shopper providers companies proceed to face.
Christophe Barraud🛢
(@C_Barraud)🇬🇧 U.Ok. Labor Scarcity Leaves Shopper Companies Gloomy, CBI Says - Bloomberghttps://t.co/HApfyun31A
This tight labour market ought to put extra energy in employees’ palms, although. As Labour MP Claudia Webbe identified on Twitter - companies struggling to fill essential positions must pay appropriately:
Claudia Webbe MP
(@ClaudiaWebbe)Employee scarcity? No.
Wage scarcity.
Producers are additionally struggling - with British automotive output falling to its lowest July stage since 1956. The continued international scarcity of semi-conductor chips hit auto companies, with employees additionally having to self-isolate attributable to COVID-19..
SMMT chief govt Mike Hawes warns that element shortages will proceed:
“Whereas the affect of the ‘pingdemic’ will reduce as self-isolation guidelines change, the worldwide scarcity of semi-conductors reveals little signal of abating,”
UK carmakers made 53,400 automobiles in July, a 37.6% drop when put next with the identical month in 2020. Extra right here:
As we coated yesterday, enterprise leaders are urging the federal government to chill out post-Brexit migration guidelines to permit EU lorry drivers to plug the hole, or threat Christmas disruption.
However ministers are standing agency, arguing that companies want to coach home drivers.
A Residence Workplace spokesperson mentioned:
“The British individuals repeatedly voted to finish free motion and take again management of our immigration system. Employers ought to spend money on our home workforce as an alternative of counting on labour from overseas.”
The Workplace for Nationwide Statistics publishes its newest realtime indicators on the UK economic system at the moment, which can present how companies are faring.
We additionally get an up to date estimate on US financial progress, and the most recent jobless claims figures, which can assist set the scene forward of the Jackson Gap financial symposium this week.
The agenda
- 9.30am BST: ONS’s newest Enterprise insights and affect on the UK economic system report
- 1.30pm BST: US Q2 GDP report (second estimate)
- 1.30pm BST: US weekly jobless figures
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